Jock Finlayson is executive vice president and chief policy officer of the Business Council of BC. (Submitted)

COLUMN: And now the bad news about B.C.’s economy

Jock Finlayson is executive vice president and chief policy officer of the Business Council of BC

In a Black Press Media column posted last month, I touched on a number of factors that continue to support economic growth in B.C., of which the most important is a steadily expanding population.

Now, I turn to developments that are dampening growth and casting something of a cloud over the province’s economic prospects in the next six to 12 months.

The first negative trend is sluggish consumer spending. Retail sales in B.C. were in negative territory through the first seven months of 2019. Adjusted for inflation and population growth, retail sales are even weaker.

Consumer spending is being weighed down by softer housing markets and the steep drop in auto sales. Record high levels of household debt are also causing some consumers to cut back on spending.

READ MORE: Canadians’ debt levels hit record highs at end of last year, CMHC says

Turning to housing and real estate indicators, residential home sales have fallen markedly in the last year or so. Recently, however, lower interest rates and earlier price declines have improved affordability, with home sales moving higher.

Some market watchers believe the housing down-cycle is over. But the Ministry of Finance estimates that residential sales in 2019 will hover near 46,000, down from almost 74,000 two years ago.

At the same time, housing starts, which have been fairly strong so far this year, are poised to slump, in line with reduced demand from non-resident buyers and decisions by many B.C. developers to pull back from planned projects.

The provincial government predicts that housing starts will drop by more than one-fifth in 2020.

Dwindling residential investment will detract from aggregate economic growth. It will also work against the policy objective of enhanced affordability, which – among other things – requires an increased supply of new housing units.

KEEP READING: Slow home sales cool B.C. government revenues this year

The deteriorating global economy is another major worry. Slower growth in major external markets, including the U.S., China and Germany, is already beginning to pinch B.C.’s exports.

Through July, the value of provincial exports was down by three per cent from 2018 levels. The forest industry has suffered the biggest blow, with wood product exports sagging by around 20 per cent. There is little chance of a meaningful export recovery in 2020.

The rolling economic crisis in the forest sector is another significant negative in B.C.’s economic picture. Mills are closing and jobs are being lost across the province. Forestry provides one-third of B.C.’s merchandise exports.

The number one issue in forestry is the diminished supply of timber, which is pushing up fibre costs for B.C. sawmills even as North American lumber prices remain low. Higher log costs have led to increased stumpage levies, at a time when the industry cannot absorb rising government-imposed charges.

Logging and lumber companies are also struggling with complex First Nations issues and growing environmental and regulatory costs.

The footprint of the forest sector is set to contract as the industry consolidates in the face of a reduced timber supply. Unfortunately, provincial policies and the lack of attention being given to the long-term commercial heath of B.C.’s leading export industry is making the transition harder and more painful than necessary.

ALSO READ: Truck convoy stalls downtown Vancouver traffic to protest forestry job losses

Finally, B.C.’s (and Canada’s) waning overall competitiveness is another economic headwind, one that is especially evident in the natural resource and infrastructure industries and in key segments of manufacturing.

Many companies in these sectors are postponing capital investments and/or investing elsewhere. Rising taxes on business are part of the explanation, along with complex and increasingly costly government regulatory regimes that are making Canada and B.C. less attractive places to deploy capital.

READ PART 1: A mix of good and bad news about B.C.’s economy

Add it all up, and the Business Council has decided to mark down our B.C. economic outlook for 2019-20.

We now expect growth of less than two per cent this year, rising slightly in 2020 as work accelerates on LNG Canada’s huge natural gas liquefaction plant and related marine terminal in Kitimat.

Job creation should continue, but at a noticeably slower pace than in the recent past. Government policy-makers and business decision-makers should get ready for a bumpy economic ride.

Jock Finlayson is executive vice president and chief policy officer of the Business Council of British Columbia

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Coastal GasLink stresses pipeline ‘on a schedule’ as B.C. appoints liaison for Wet’suwet’en

670-kilometre pipeline is schedule to be completed by end of 2023

Anticipated adverse weather leads to ferry rescheduling, Prince Rupert and Haida Gwaii

Sailing for the Northern Expedition, Skidegate has been revised by BC Ferries

It’s a sign for Haida Gwaii

Haida Gwaii signs will be bi-lingual to respect language

Skidegate man arrested following Queen Charlotte RCMP investigation

Man faces possible drugs and weapons charges

Cannabis and vaping 101

RCMP invite community to engage in cannabis and vaping dialogue workshops

VIDEO: Canada’s first presumptive case of coronavirus officially confirmed

Both patient and wife arrived on a China Southern Airlines flight after having been to Wuhan

First-place Canucks beat Blues 3-1 for ninth straight home win

Miller nets pair as Vancouver defeats Cup champs

Swapping grape varieties can help winemakers adapt to climate change: UBC study

Report says 56% of wine-grape-growing regions would be lost if global climate warms by 2 C

Alberta premier wants feds to approve Teck mine for benefit of First Nations

Kenney: ‘Surely [reconciliation] means saying yes to economic development for First Nations people’

Police search for man who went missing from Vernon hotel

Jay Rosenberger, 38, was last seen Friday

NDP suggests easing secondary housing rules for B.C. farmland

Lana Popham proposes guest homes not just for relatives

After four sexual assaults in the same B.C. park, RCMP ask women not to walk alone

Four sexual assaults took place in Glen Park over two months

BC Place lights up in purple and yellow to honour Kobe Bryant

Kobe Bryant, his 13-year-old daughter and seven others were killed in a helicopter crash

Whistleblower says Iranian-Americans questioned at Peace Arch crossing were targeted

Immigration lawyer says response from Customs Border Protection is a ‘total cover up’

Most Read